Article Open access Xiaohui Guo , Yanhu He , Hao Cai , Jun Li , Lirong Zhu & Changqing Ye Scientific Reports 14 , Article number: 30922 (2024) Cite this article Metrics Abstract Climate change and human activities are the primary drivers influencing changes in runoff dynamics. However, current understanding of future hydrological processes under scenarios of gradual climate change and escalating human activities remains uncertain, particularly in tropical regions affected by deforestation. Based on this, we employed the SWAT model coupled with the near future (2021–2040) and middle future (2041–2060) global climate models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6 (SSP1 + RCP2.6), SSP2-4.5 (SSP2 + RCP4.5), SSP3-7.0 (SSP3 + RCP7.0), and SSP5-8.5 (SSP5 + RCP8.5)) from the CMIP6 and the CA-Markov model to evaluate the runoff response to future environmental changes in the Dingan River Basin (DRB). The quantification of the impacts of climate change and land use change on future runoff changes was conducted. The results revealed a non-significant increasing trend in precipitation during the historical period (1999–2018). Furthermore, all three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) exhibited an upward trend in precipitation from 2021 to 2060. Notably, the SSP5-8.5 scenario demonstrated a highly significant increase ( P < 0.01), while the SSP2-4.5 scenario displayed a non-significant decreasing trend. The future precipitation pattern exhibits a decrease during spring and winter, while showing an increase in summer and autumn. The temperature exhibited a significant increase ( P < 0.05) across the four future scenarios, with amplitudes of 0.24 °C/(10 years), 0.36 °C/(10 years), 0.36 °C/(10 years), and 0.50 °C/(10 years) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 respectively. The future trend of land use change entails a continuous increase in cultivated land and a corresponding decrease in artificial forest land. By 2032, the area of cultivated land is [...]