Article Jiawei Liu , Colin Kyle , Jiali Wang , William Koval , Vanja Dukic & Greg Dwyer Nature Climate Change (2025) Cite this article Metrics Abstract The effects of climate change on forest-defoliating insects are poorly understood, but could severely reduce forest productivity, biodiversity and timber production. For decades following its introduction in 1869, the spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar ) severely defoliated North American forests, but the introduction of the fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in 1989 suppressed spongy moth defoliation for 27 years. E. maimaiga , however, needs cool, moist conditions, whereas climate change is bringing hot, dry conditions to the range of the insect. Here we use an empirically verified eco-climate model to project that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates, thereby increasing spongy moth defoliation. Recent rebounds in defoliation are consistent with our projections. Our work demonstrates that the effects of climate change on species interactions can have important consequences for natural ecosystems. This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution Access options Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription $29.99 / 30 days cancel any time Learn more Subscribe to this journal Receive 12 print issues and online access $209.00 per year only $17.42 per issue Learn more Buy this article Purchase on SpringerLink Instant access to full article PDF Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout Additional access options: Log in Learn about institutional subscriptions Read our FAQs Contact customer support Data availability The data to which we fitted our ecological model were collected in the lower peninsula of Michigan in the course of our previous work 23 and are available via GitHub at https://github.com/jiaweiliu0727/Eco_ClimateChange_Model (ref. 53 ), along with the combined shape file for […]