Article Open access Akintomide A. Akinsanola , Adeyemi A. Adebiyi , Vishal Bobde , Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri , Alain T. Tamoffo & Derrick K. Danso Communications Earth & Environment 6 , Article number: 2 (2025) Cite this article Metrics Abstract African easterly waves significantly influence regional hydroclimate, making it crucial to understand how global warming will impact their activity. Here, we investigate future changes in wave activity and assess the underlying mechanisms using an ensemble of Earth system models. We find a robust increase in wave activity over the Sahel–Sahara region by the end of the 21st century under two emission scenarios. This intensification is linked to increased baroclinicity associated with a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinea Coast and the Sahara. Our results also indicate that low-level warming enhances the waves by reinforcing monsoon flow, leading to increased convergence and vertical motion along the intertropical discontinuity. These energetic alterations significantly modify the conditions that currently produce these waves. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in wave activity could impact the transport of Saharan dust and mesoscale convective activity over the Sahel. Introduction African easterly waves (AEWs) are westward-propagating synoptic-scale disturbances that originate from central North Africa during boreal summer 1 , 2 . These waves develop and propagate along the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) 1 , 3 , 4 . Previous studies have linked AEW formation to the AEJ’s combined barotropic-baroclinic instability, characterized by a reversal in the meridional gradient of potential vorticity (PV) 1 , 3 , 5 , 6 as well as pre-existing convection over East Africa 7 , 8 . Latent heating from moist convection and the radiative effects of Saharan dust also contribute to AEW growth and maintenance 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 […]